Is Obama the inevitable winner in 2012?

Since we have determined Obama will have far more foreign policy experience and executive experience running the federal government than Mitt, and since Americans prefer experience in the White House, only failing to reelect the inbent in extreme cases like Carter who had a terrible economy and the Iran hostage crisis or George H Bush who enraged his base by raising taxes to reduce the huge deficits Reagan ran up. If the economy continues to improve and no major crisis or scandal gets in the way, Obama is a sure thing in 2012. Your thoughts?